NOAA Space Weather

[Steve Nixon]

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Jul 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 18-Jul 20 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 18-Jul 20 2022

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 3 3 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 1 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 3
18-21UT 2 2 4
21-00UT 2 2 4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2022

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) radiation storms persists
through 20 Jul due to the complexity and favorable locations of a few
active regions in the western portion of the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2022

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
R1-R2 45% 45% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for
R3 (Strong), radio blackouts will persist through 20 July given the
current active regions on the solar disk.

[Steve Nixon]

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Jul 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 18-Jul 20 2022 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 18-Jul 20 2022

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 3 3 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 1 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 3
18-21UT 2 2 4
21-00UT 2 2 4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2022

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) radiation storms persists
through 20 Jul due to the complexity and favorable locations of a few
active regions in the western portion of the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2022

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
R1-R2 45% 45% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for
R3 (Strong), radio blackouts will persist through 20 July given the
current active regions on the solar disk.

[Steve Nixon]

This site will give you an update on the current space weather
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

This site explains what the Different R levels Mean
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

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